How Asymmetrical Trade Between Europe and Africa Fuels Irregular Migration

Irregular migration from Africa to Europe is frequently framed in European political discourse as a crisis of border security or a consequence of domestic governance failures within African states. While political instability, demographic shifts, and climate change undoubtedly contribute to human mobility, a critical yet often overlooked driver lies in the structural asymmetries of international trade. Far from being an isolated phenomenon, irregular migration is deeply rooted in historical and contemporary trade practices between the European Union (EU) and African nations. By dismantling protective tariffs, flooding local markets with subsidised goods, and restricting African value-added exports, asymmetrical trade agreements systematically erode local livelihoods—creating the very economic desperation that compels thousands to risk their lives crossing the Mediterranean.

At the heart of this dynamic is the "import flooding" facilitated by Economic Partnership Agreements  (EPAs) between the EU and African countries. Market-opening commitments under these agreements are legally binding, requiring African nations to eliminate tariffs on a substantial majority of European imports while restricting their ability to use protective industrial tools like export taxes or local-content rules. Consequently, nascent African manufacturing and agricultural sectors are exposed to direct competition from vastly more capitalised European industries. For example, in West Africa, domestic poultry and tomato farmers have been devastated by the influx of cheap, frozen European chicken cuts and heavily processed tomato paste. Unable to compete with artificially low prices, local producers are forced out of business. When rural agricultural economies collapse, displaced farmers and unemployed youth initially migrate to overcrowded African urban centers before ultimately turning toward irregular pathways to Europe in search of viable livelihoods.

This market distortion is compounded by European domestic agricultural policies, notably the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Although the the EU officially phased out direct export subsidies over the past decade, European agribusinesses continue to receive billions of euros in direct income support, accounting for a significant portion of farm revenue. This state-backed cushioning allows European producers to export surplus commodities—such as milk powder fortified with vegetable fats—to African markets at prices below the local cost of production. While European consumers benefit from lower food costs and European agribusinesses secure profitable external markets, the long-term consequence in Africa is the structural underdevelopment of domestic food systems. Deprived of the ability to sustain themselves through agriculture—the largest employer across the continent—young Africans face a stark lack of economic alternatives.

Simultaneously, while African markets are pressured to remain open to European finished goods, African exporters encounter formidable barriers when attempting to enter the European single market. The EU enforces stringent non-tariff barriers, including complex sanitary and phytosanitary standards, strict pesticide limits, and emerging environmental compliance frameworks. Furthermore, tariff escalation remains a persistent obstacle: raw African commodities such as cocoa beans, coffee, and crude oil enter Europe with minimal or zero duties, whereas processed goods like chocolate, roasted coffee, or refined petroleum face significantly higher tariffs. This structure locks African economies into the bottom rung of global value chains as exporters of unprocessed raw materials and importers of high-value manufactured products. By stifling local industrialisation and job creation, these trade rules directly undermine the economic diversification needed to absorb Africa's rapidly growing youth population.

Ultimately, this reveals a profound contradiction in European foreign policy. On one hand, Brussels invests heavily in border externalization, maritime patrols, and development aid aimed at addressing the "root causes" of irregular migration. On the other hand, its trade policies actively dismantle the economic foundations required for Africans to thrive at home. Research from institutions such as King's College London highlights this exact paradox, demonstrating that premature trade liberalisation acts as a direct push factor for migration. Moreover, when legal labor migration pathways for low- and medium-skilled workers remain heavily restricted, displaced workers are left with few choices beyond engaging smuggling networks to navigate perilous desert and sea routes.

In conclusion, irregular migration from Africa to Europe cannot be resolved through border securitization alone, as walls and patrols do not eliminate the economic desperation driving human movement. Unfair trading practices—characterised by asymmetric free trade agreements, subsidised agricultural exports, and barriers to African value addition—have systematically hollowed out key sectors of African economies. True cooperation requires aligning trade policy with development goals: granting African states the policy space to protect emerging industries, eliminating trade-distorting subsidies, and supporting regional integration initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Only when trade between Europe and Africa is built on genuine reciprocity and mutual benefit will the economic pressures fueling irregular migration begin to subside.

The Global Village on My Screen: A Thank You to My Readers

Eleven years is a long time to leave a room dark. When I walked away from this blog over a decade ago, I didn't know if I would ever turn the lights back on. Writing is an act of vulnerability; it requires pouring out your thoughts, your quirks, and your rawest reflections into a vast, unpredictable digital ether. After such a prolonged pause, stepping back into this space felt less like returning home and more like exploring a forgotten ruin. I wondered if the foundation we built had crumbled, or worse, if the world had simply moved on.

But you were waiting.

Since I hit "publish" again, something extraordinary has happened. The visitor metrics on my dashboard haven't just recovered; they have skyrocketed. Day after day, I watch the analytics climb to heights that completely eclipse the numbers from the peak of my writing eleven years ago. It is a staggering, humbling sight.

What moves me most, however, isn’t the sheer volume of the data—it is where that data lives. When I look at the map of where you are all reading from, I see a vibrant, interconnected global village. You are logging on from bustling cities, quiet rural towns, different time zones, and completely diverse walks of life across the globe. Despite the geographic oceans between us, we are meeting right here, sharing the same words and experiencing the same ideas.

To every single one of you who has clicked, read, commented, or quietly shared my work from your corner of the world: you have validated my return.

Your overwhelming presence has proven to me, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that stepping back into this arena was the right thing to do. You didn't just welcome me back; you threw the doors wide open. By showing up in far greater numbers than I ever could have anticipated, you have given me something far more valuable than traffic. You have given me a profound sense of purpose.

Pouring one’s thoughts out into the world can sometimes feel like shouting into a void. But your engagement, your views, and your global community have transformed that void into a crowded, warm, and deeply encouraging room. You are the reason I open my laptop each day. You are the purpose behind every sentence I craft.

Thank you for listening, thank you for growing this space into something bigger than it ever was before, and thank you for giving me a reason to keep writing. The pause is officially over, and because of you, the best chapters are still ahead.

Nyiragongo

Mount Nyiragongo is an active stratovolcano in the Democratic Republic of Congo that contains the world's largest and most fluid active lava lake.

• Location: Virunga National Park, about 12 kilometres north of the city of Goma.

• Elevation: 3,470 metres (11,385 feet).

• Crater: The main crater is roughly two kilometers wide and holds a massive, churning pool of molten rock.

The Mount Nyiragongo lava lake is the largest semi-permanent pool of liquid magma on Earth. Suspended inside the volcano's massive two-kilometre-wide summit crater, it acts as a direct, open window into the Earth's mantle. The surface of the lake is covered by a dark, semi-solid crust of cooled rock. Driven by intense heat from a deep mantle plume, these solid plates constantly fracture, slide, and sink, revealing bright orange rivers of liquid magma underneath.

The level of the lake is never static. Magma pressures below cause the lake to rise and fall hundreds of meters over months or years. Volcanologists describe the inflating and deflating of the mountain as the "earth breathing"

The most dangerous characteristic of Nyiragongo's lava lake is that it sits significantly higher than the surrounding landscape. The main crater acts like a giant bowl holding millions of cubic meters of ultra-fluid magma.

When tectonic stress or seismic activity causes the crustal walls to fracture, the lake can drain completely in less than an hour. Instead of overflowing the rim, the lava punches through fissures on the volcano's flanks, racing downhill at speeds of up to 100 km/h directly toward the city of Goma. This rapid draining caused the catastrophic eruptions of 1977, 2002, and 2021.

Unlike volcanoes that explode upward, Nyiragongo’s primary hazard stems from fissures opening on its slopes, causing its massive lava lake to rapidly drain like an emptied basin. The most recent major disaster occurred when the volcano erupted with virtually no seismic warning signs. 

• Fractures opened along the volcano's southern flanks. Millions of cubic metres of highly fluid lava drained from the summit crater lake within hours.

• Human Impact: The lava advanced in two streams—one toward the Rwandan border and another directly south toward Goma. It incinerated entire neighbourhoods, destroyed over 3,600 homes, and killed at least 32 people (some from direct contact with lava, others from toxic gas asphyxiation).

• The Mass Evacuation: In the days following the initial flow, heavy secondary earthquakes rocked the region. Fearing a secondary flow or a limnic eruption from nearby Lake Kivu, authorities ordered a forced evacuation, displacing 400,000 residents.

Mount Nyiragongo’s intense activity is driven by a divergent plate boundary where the African continent is literally tearing itself apart.

Specifically, it sits within the Albertine Rift (the western branch of the East African Rift System), where the massive Nubian Plate and the Somalian Plate are pulling away from each other.

The Rift Mechanics Powering Nyiragongo

• Continental Rifting: As the Nubian and Somalian plates pull apart, the Earth's crust stretches, thins, and fractures. This tension drops the pressure on the underlying mantle, causing it to melt and form magma.

• Deep-Seated Mantle Plume: Beneath this tearing crust lies a thermal mantle plume (a hotspot of upwelling intense heat). This plume superheats the thinning lithosphere, forcing highly specialised magma to the surface.

• Fissure-Controlled Plumbing: Because the rift valley floor is heavily fractured by tectonic fault lines, magma does not just exit through the main peak. During major rifting adjustments, the volcano's flanks rip open along these fault lines, causing the lava lake to drain rapidly through low-altitude fissures.

Unique Magma Chemistry

The tectonic mechanics of the East African Rift give Nyiragongo’s lava a rare chemical footprint:

• Ultra-Low Silica: The magma originates from incredibly deep within the mantle and rises rapidly through the thinned rift crust without absorbing much silica (quartz) from continental rocks.

• Water-Like Fluidity: Low silica content means the lava has a very low viscosity. When a tectonic fracture opens the mountain, this fluid lava flows almost like water, creating a severe hazard for the nearby city of Goma.

If the East African Rift System continues to widen, it will fundamentally transform the geography of Africa, splitting the continent into two distinct landmasses and forming Earth's sixth ocean.

While tectonic plates move at a slow rate of roughly 5 to 7 millimeters per year, scientists estimate that this process could reach a full continental breakup within 5 to 10 million years.

This geological transformation will reshape the globe through several major geographic changes:

The Birth of a New Ocean Basin

As the Somali Plate (in the east) and the Nubian Plate (in the west) pull away from each other, the continental crust stretches and thins out. Over millions of years, the floor of the Great Rift Valley will drop low enough to slide below sea level. Eventually, seawater from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will breach the low-lying Afar Depression. This water will flood down the length of the rift, creating a long, narrow sea that will eventually widen into a new ocean.

A New "Mini-Continent"

The easternmost portion of Africa—often referred to as the Horn of Africa—will detach completely from the mainland. This massive new island or "mini-continent" will drift into the Indian Ocean. It will be composed of:

• All of Somalia

• Large eastern portions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania

• The entire geographic tip of the Horn of Africa

New Coastlines for Landlocked Nations

One of the most radical changes will occur on the newly formed coastlines of mainland Africa.

Modern-day landlocked countries located along the western branch of the rift valley will suddenly become coastal nations. Countries like Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Malawi, and Zambia will sit directly on the shores of this new ocean, gaining direct maritime access to global trade routes.

Split Territories

For nations sitting directly on the fault lines, the rifting process will divide their modern borders. Countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania will be split into two pieces. Their western territories will remain attached to the African mainland, while their eastern territories drift away on the new Somali island.

Mount Nyiragongo and the city of Goma

Traditional Ijaw Music

Traditional Ijaw music relies heavily on percussion and rhythm, featuring instruments such as native drums (ịgba), talking drums (opu ozi), wooden gongs, flutes, and shakers/rattles.

Hand-carved wooden drums of varying sizes provide the primary bass and rhythmic foundation for dances and ceremonies. Talking drums are hourglass-shaped tension drums used to mimic speech patterns, convey historical narratives, praise titles, and signal community events. Rattles and shakers are dry seed or bead-filled percussion instruments tied around dancers' ankles or held in hand to add high-frequency counter-rhythms.

Flutes (Otele / Local Whistles): Wooden or bamboo wind instruments used during festivals, boat regattas, and masquerade processions.

Dawoye Egberi is a performance by Ikia Mina Ogbo a socio-cultural and philanthropic organisation for the wives and daughters of Opobo, Rivers State, Nigeria. 

Visit to Fort Portal

The Uganda countryside is very beautiful. Scenic, picturesque, rolling hills carpeted in green with a few rock outcrops the closer one gets to the Rwenzori foothills. Most of the land is cultivated, or in some other form of use. Land that is not cultivated for agriculture is often covered by extensive stretches of purposely planted eucalyptus or pine trees. There is precious little virgin tropical forest, but encountering such forests often offers sightings of baboons and other wild fauna. 

It was quite an interesting road journey, really, between Kampala and Fort Portal. I am in this post attempting to put together my thoughts and observations of, and during, the journey itself when these are still fresh in my memory, so as not to lose them and to capture them for posterity.

The 296km highway itself was fairly good, but rough and uncomfortable on those stretches where the road surface had suffered neglect, and was undergoing maintenance at the same time. So it was a combination of smooth road for a while, massive potholes on different stretches, and then stretches with extensive roadworks disrupting the flow of traffic, with each scenario occurring one after the other. For these reasons the journey was more tedious and took longer than it might have taken otherwise. 

The traffic was composed of ordinary private vehicles like ours, numerous brand new pickup trucks and 4x4s with government numberplates darting at high speed in both directions, many Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), large buses, and smaller commercial vehicles, and also the ubiquitous Uganda motorcycles performing various functions. The motorcycle in Uganda appears to be an institution of its own. To be found everywhere, the motorcycle is undoubtedly the most popular utility vehicle, used for the transport of everything; from mattresses, to roofing sheets; from crates of soft drinks (colloquially known as "sodas") to entire families; the motorcycle is a fixture on the Ugandan road. The sight of a 5,000 litre polyurethane water tank balanced precariously on the passenger seat of a motorcycle was a sight for the ages.

These photos are of breathtakingly beautiful tea plantations in Kabarole District that I shakingly managed to capture with my phone as we approached Fort Portal, photos from a moving vehicle that do not do justice to just how spectacularly scenic the views truly were. Kabarole District itself, which is part of the Tooro Kingdom, had Fort Portal as its main town before 1 July, 2020, when Fort Portal was elevated to a city, and separated from Kabarole District. In that year, Fort Portal Municipality constituency became the Fort Portal City with an independent local government. The trip from Kampala to Fort Portal had us pass through towns like Mityana and Mubende. 

Fort Portal is covered in bunting for the new king's coronation tomorrow. Yep, I caught sight of the Rwenzori Mountain Range from a distance, but we're hoping tomorrow to move closer to it to get a better look. We're hitched up for the night in some hotel, but tomorrow we won't be hanging around for the coronation. After viewing the mountains, we intend to visit some hot springs, then some caves, and then drive over to Bunyoro to visit the Murchison Falls National Park. 

The streets of Fort Portal are very busy, but it's not clear if the streets are so busy this evening because of tomorrow's coronation. We went to see the Omukama's Palace, which is located on the top of a hill, and with visions in my mind's eye of the famous Princess Elizabeth of Tooro directing preparations for tomorrow's events. As I'm typing this while lying back in my hotel room, it's close to midnight. I realise that I was awoken from my sleep by a loud uproar across the city. I looked out of the window and on the street in front of me, in the darkness I saw a large procession of people singing and dancing in unison, moving in the direction of the palace. *I heard after I woke up in the morning that the procession was of the new king himself surrounded by supporters as he walked the four miles to the palace. So I inadvertently stumbled into a royal coronation in real life.*

Day's end tomorrow should see us back in Kampala. (It didn't, and it was not until two weeks later that I made it to Murchison).

Okay, so I woke in the middle of the night to type this. As I said, I did not want the thoughts to fade away. I have to go back to sleep now, tomorrow promises to be an even busier day, after which I shall have more to report. 

Postcript: I posted this contemporaneously on Facebook at the time, and then thought to share it again here on the blog.

Murchison Falls National Park, The Victoria Nile (Side note)

The Victoria Nile

At this point the Victoria Nile having flowed from Lake Victoria through Lake Kyoga and squeezed through the Murchison Falls (also known as Kabalega Falls), then flows onwards to Lake Albert approxiately 32 kilometres (20 miles) downriver. It then emerges as the Albert Nile when it flows out of the northern tip of Lake Albert as it travels north towards South Sudan. The Albert Nile and the Victoria Nile are part of the White Nile system.

I have now seen the rivers Nile, Niger, Congo and Zambezi up close. As children we learnt a song titled "The Rivers of Africa", a song that named the continent's main rivers—Nile, Niger, Senegal, Congo, Orange, Limpopo, Zambezi. I have also seen the Benue, Gambia, Volta, Chobe, Tana and Mara, the latter two in Kenya. 

As an aside, vertigo has become a recurring problem as I advance in age. It was apparent on this bridge again, just as it had been on the Kazungula Bridge over the Zambezi in Botswana last year. Vertigo is that false sensation that you or your surrounding environment is spinning, whirling, or moving when you are actually still. I almost lost my balance just from looking down at the river from on top of the bridge. 🙃