Our best days may be behind us...

There has been a lot of talk about the world population hitting 7 billion people recently. This has been a source of concern for those who worried about the future of mankind.

In the case of Nigeria, this even more urgent, the last head count says there are 167,912,561 people in Nigeria. The population is increasing at a rate of 5.6 million people per annum. Now to any sensible person, that is a lot of people to add every year.

Nigeria's population trend

This wouldn't be so bad, but in the case of Nigeria, this can not be viewed as a outstanding success. Due to Nigeria's failure to hold up any tangible, positive achievement to show the rest of the world. Nigerians are left desperately clasping at straws like saying "Nigeria is the giant of Africa", and "oil". This is rather sad and pathetic to my mind. The oil within Nigeria, has nothing to do with Nigerians manufacturing it, it was there before anyone even knew what oil was, it was (good) fortune that it lay within what is now called Nigeria.

As for the population, children are a good thing. But like any other good thing, you can get too much of it. Nigerians tend to smirk that theirs is one of the largest populations in the world. Why the smirk? Are they the only ones who know how to reproduce? I think not. Is Nigeria the size of Russia, with millions of square miles of fertile and, the answer is again no. Do Nigerians love their children more than anyone else in the world, definitely not. Is there a need for such a large population, given that technology is reducing the need for man power? There is no need for such a large population.

In other parts of the world, controlled population growth goes hand in hand with an ordered society, one where it's citizens are happy to live. In Nigeria population growth is not controlled and this government like all previous governments doesn't regard this as an issue. With a country that is losing significant amounts of agricultural land due to desertification in the north, and soil erosion in the south, along with subsistence farming . The destruction of the environment by the poor to survive (ie collection of firewood etc), accompanied by governments who don't and can't meet their needs, doesn't make for a happy future. With dwindling agricultural land, unsustainable agricultural policies, it seems Nigeria may never again be in the position to feed itself. This accompanied by a lack of an industrial base, or technological base, means future generations will become poorer. Even if the country were to fall apart. The Sahelian region would be least likely to cope with rapid population growth, desertification and climate change, the best they can hope for is to spoil for a war with it's southern neighbour(s), as they have nothing to lose.

Political leadership at the centre (Abuja) is at best weak, and  prone to gimmicks, and is myopic in nature. The population at large is hostage to a cocktail of increasing ethnic chauvinism, religious misinterpretation, cultural resistance, intolerance, rampant corruption and mismanagement, which do not make for a bright future. The country has escaped to date, due to the unimaginative solution of exploiting the mineral resources (namely oil and gas deposits), but these are finite and non-renewable, and once exhausted there is nothing in place to generate significant income.

By the year 2020, Nigeria would have surpassed 200 million people. This is more than the population of the whole of Southern Africa (the SADC  region (Southern Africa development community)  on a fraction of the surface area. The UN (United Nations) estimates that by the year 2050, Nigeria will be the fourth most populous country in the world. (that is a disaster).

To make things even more tricky, how can you urge people to have less children? Even the educated have large families, I've several aunts and uncles who have more than their fair share of degrees and have an average of eight children per family. So if the middle class won't listen, what hope do you have to persuade the poor? In other parts of the world, this is a natural benefit of increasing education, but Nigeria bucks the trend.

Another point to consider, is that Nigerians are satisfied with low standards. Those educated southerners in Nigeria are proud that they have the highest literacy rates in Nigeria, with the south-west with 73.6 per cent, the south-south with 71.9%, and the south-east with 74.1%, the north central has 54.9%, and the other northern regions ie north-west 33.9% and north-east 33.8%.

These figures are taken from

Literacy in Nigeria, no cure for unplanned population growth

Compare that to Kerala state in Southern India, they have 100% literacy amongst female children, (it goes without saying that for boys it's also 100%), and population growth not just in Kerala but throughout Southern India has reached replacement levels.  You can see with this comparison, that there is still a lot of work to do in Nigeria on this front. At it's very best around 26% are uneducated, in the worst case 67% are illiterate.

With future generations facing increasing poverty, conflicts over land and resources will be more common. The best, the educated class can hope for is to escape Nigeria and take up residence, in some other land where the government had the foresight to plan for the future needs of the host population. Nigeria is not blessed like other African nations like DR Congo (Democratic republic of Congo), with large areas of unsettled fertile land with relatively small populations, the crunch time is fast approaching, so there is less room to manoeuvre. It is not by mistake that Nigeria is third world.

Nigeria will soon become synonymous with not just corruption, but how badly can one destroy a country so completely. Other countries will look and say, "well at least we are not as bad as you!" This is all rather tragic because it is avoidable, with some consistent effort.

Le cygne (The Swan): Camille Saint-Saens

I couldn't think of a better way to end the month. I adore Saint-Saens' music, being as influenced as he was by two of my favourite composers, Sebastian Bach and Amadeus Mozart. Saint-Saens famously wrote,

"What gives Sebastian Bach and Mozart a place apart is that these two great expressive composers never sacrificed form to expression. As high as their expression may soar, their musical form remains supreme and all-sufficient".

Camille Saint-Saens (9 October 1835 – 16 December 1921), was a French late-Romantic composer and he is known especially for his 'Carnival of the Animals', a musical suite of fourteen movements, most of which relate to various members of the animal kingdom, from the Lion and the Tortoise, to birds, (Aviary) and fish, (Aquarium). Le cygne is the 13th movement and is the most famous movement of the suite. Enjoy..

Man's inhumanity 2: Burned alive by angry mob..

I came across this story titled Gay African Man Beaten, Burned Alive by Angry Mob (Extremely Graphic Video) in which the assertion was repeatedly made that the victim of this gruesome incident captured on film was a gay man, beaten and burned alive because of his sexuality. At the same time, the story points out at length that nobody knows who the victim is, or even in which country the incident occurred. The only thing the author seemed to know for sure is that the victim was a gay man.

Well, I am way too squeamish to have watched more than the first few minutes of the video and so I am unaware if anything was said or done by those in the video to confirm what was said in the story about the victim's sexuality.

If there is anyone who has the stomach to watch it in full, I would be grateful if they could confirm to us whether in fact the video reveals that this was a gay man and that he was so brutally put to death because of his sexuality. Otherwise, I am inclined (with all due respect to the unfortunate victim in the video), to think of this story as another instance of gay people jumping on the 'victim' bandwagon.

That aside, what this video clearly shows us in graphic detail, is the degree of cruelty and inhumanity that we humans are capable of. And the presence of a large crowd of spectators too, obviously amused and entertained, speaks volumes. In which way now are these murderers better than the person they so gruesomely killed? On who's behalf were they doing this? God's?

Click here for Man's inhumanity 1

Trouble sleep, yanga wake am..

Fela from 1972. I grew up listening to music like this. Timeless..

Coming Back to the Future

 

It's been quite a while since I've put something up on this blog. The reason for this is that I've been otherwise preoccupied. My time was taken up by professional disciplinary proceedings, which commenced just over three years ago, but came to a climax over the last few weeks. (I had mentioned it previously on this blog here and here).

It has not been easy having to wait for such a long time and having to live with the uncertainty about the future that is inevitable in such circumstances. For me it is a matter of great relief that finally the proceedings have concluded and the long wait is over. Of course you would expect me to divulge the outcome of the proceedings, and I will, but only to a limited extent, given that those proceedings are not the real subject of this post. To assuage your curiosity though, suffice it to say that the outcome for me in particular was a reasonably good one, given all of the circumstances.

I have emerged in a considerably better position than I had imagined, and am now able after a period of prolonged professional paralysis, to think about and consider the future. And this relatively favourable outcome is essentially thanks to the assistance of a wonderful brilliant senior barrister, whose services I would not normally be able to afford but for the great professional indemnity insurance policy that I had ensured was taken out by my former firm, which included cover for legal representation before the disciplinary tribunal.

So now that hurdle is in the past, and the time has come for me to pick up the pieces of my career, which I must admit is in unmitigated tatters. I feel almost as if midway through my working life, I am now required to start my career afresh, when one is at that age when Human Resources departments are not exactly falling over themselves to take you on; together with the added disadvantage of the world being in the middle of a horrendous economic crisis. I find myself wondering why I ever imagined that the end of the disciplinary proceedings would also bring to an end the uncertainty about the future, the apprehension and the worry.

Climate Change Adaptation and Conflict in Nigeria

"Climate change, a growing number of voices in media and policy circles warn, is raising the risks of violent conflict in the twenty-first century. Dire futures are predicted for some of the world's poorest, least prepared countries and their most vulnerable citizens. This report, (authored by Aaron Sayne, who in July 2011 published policy recommendations with background on Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB)), is sponsored by the Centers of Innovation at the U.S. Institute of Peace and evaluates these claims for conflict-prone Nigeria.

Based on a comprehensive literature survey, interviews with senior government officials, academics and private sector figures and the author's work as a conflict analyst in Nigeria, the report calls for a more nuanced approach to mapping the links between climate change and conflict. It reviews evidence of such links in Nigeria and outlines a process for achieving conflict-sensitive adaptation to the effects of climate change."

Click on this link for the 16-page Special Report