Another Icelandic explosion?

We have just seen more than 100,000 flights grounded across Europe and a beleaguered airline industry frantically trying to restore to itself the confidence of hundreds of thousands of hapless, stranded travellers. We have witnessed perishable fresh produce rotting away in warehouses in far flung locations such as in the Caribbean, South America and Africa, for want of transport to consumer markets in Europe. Businesses and schools have been disrupted, business meetings have been cancelled.

And all this because one relatively small volcano in Iceland erupted in icy conditions, causing huge volumes of ash to be produced, the ash cloud rising high into the atmosphere. The wind direction too by coincidence was such that it guaranteed that this ash cloud would drift across most of northern Europe. One week later, we are only now just starting to breathe a sigh of relief that this immense disruption has come to an end. But there is another fact that we must be aware of.

And the fact is this: A far bigger Icelandic volcano, Katla, is tipped to erupt in the following months, potentially causing much more severe and sustained disruption to industry and to society as a whole. Eyjafjallajokul erupted last week and records show that each time Eyjafjallajokul has erupted in the last 2,000 years - in the year 920, in 1612 and between 1821 and 1823, Katla has exploded within six months.

The ash from the Eyjafjallajokul eruption was sent to such high altitudes because the ice on top of the mountain melted as the volcano erupted and the mixture of cold melt water and lava caused explosions, which in turn shot the volcanic ash high up into the air. The ash cloud drifted far across Europe because of the high altitude to which the ash had been shot.

Katla however is ten times the size of Eyjafjallajokul, with a correspondingly larger ice field. Were Katla to erupt, there undoubtedly will be shot high into the atmosphere larger amounts of ash than we saw with Eyjafjallajokul, with even more serious disruption the likely outcome, if the winds were blowing in roughly the same direction as with the recent Eyjafjallajokul eruption.

"I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Katla erupted within the next year, but how much it affects Britain and northern Europe depends on what happens with the winds at the time," the volcanologist Bill McGuire told The Independent newspaper.

Bill McGuire is a professor of earth sciences at UCL and widely accepted as one of Britain's leading volcanologists, whose main interests include monitoring volcanoes and global geophysical events. He is a bona fide authority on the subject of volcanoes and his advice is for airlines to start from now to draw up contingency plans. However, it is obvious that not very much can be done if the airspace is taken over by a volcanic ash cloud. What perhaps businesses could consider is to stock up on supplies early on. And travellers could have a rethink about whether they really need to make that trip.

There are jokes being passed around that the volcanic ash is a hidden agenda by the Green movement to limit unnecessary flights. Some have even said that the ash cloud is Iceland's reprisal against Britain for demanding repayment from Iceland of the billions of pounds paid by the British government in compensation to customers of Iceland's failed banks.

Mother Nature clears her throat

Mother Nature clears her throat, and we humans in all our arrogance, are humbled.

The bolts of lightning appearing in the plume of the ash-spewing Eyjafjallajokull volcano are pretty to look at, but the truth is that the process that creates this kind of lightning in erupting volcanoes remains something of a mystery. Lightning, which is usually associated with severe weather such as thunderstorms, hurricanes and the like, is also produced by the rolling debris clouds of volcanoes.

It is thought that the lightning in a volcanic plume is connected to the rotation that these hot gases and ash undergo, sort of like a tornado. As a plume rotates, it can spawn waterspouts or dust devils, which gather together the electric charges in the plume to form a sheath of lightning.

Lol, I'm not an expert, obviously, but I've been doing some reading and you can join me by having a look at this site.

All in all this ash cloud business has become rather a nuisance. I did see a few vapour trails of aircraft flying over London today, but the explanation came when I heard that some other European countries had opened their airspace to aviation and that these were aircraft flying across Britain from the European continent, possibly towards North America and vice versa. I learnt also that a few airports in Scotland and the north of England and in Northern Ireland had opened, but only very few aircraft movements had been reported.

Then I was pleased this evening to hear of several British Airways long-haul flights from all around the world headed for London, even though UK airspace remained officially closed and many of the earlier flights bound for London had been diverted to Madrid instead, from where weary travellers were left to make their own way across Spain and France to the channel port of Calais so as to board a ferry to Dover, (if they could manage to get a place on the ferry that is).

But there was then a report that a BA 747 had just touched down at Heathrow, with live footage to boot. Shortly after these pictures were shown, the 10 O'clock news, which had begun with the announcement that UK airspace was still closed and was not expected to reopen before tomorrow morning, ended with the surprising announcement that the airspace was now officially open. What a difference half an hour can make!

So now, we should all feel better that the end to this chaos is finally in sight. But lets not ignore the important lessons that this has taught us, the first being that the world is totally unprepared for an event such as this. Especially, when one considers that this Icelandic volcano is only a minor volcano.

God bless you, you're doing a great job

"You're doing a great job, thanks and God bless you. Your special number today was powerful and I believe that your ministration on Sunday will be even more powerful..." is the text of the SMS I received from the pastor of my church last Saturday. It's not the first time either that he has commended my efforts as leader of the choir. Sometime ago I blogged about my appointment as choir leader in January this year. At first it was daunting, the prospect of managing the complex affairs of a choir. But I dug into my role with gusto and have found myself actually enjoying it.

I am in charge of a group of choristers many of whom are married women with small children, who also have jobs. So there is the fact that members of the choir oftentimes cannot find the time to attend choir practice, (small children can be such a handful sometimes). Then there are issues concerning family commitments and so forth, and it hasn't been an easy ride for me. But I've been open and honest with them that I am quite inexperienced at this. And by appearing to be naive, I've somehow warmed my way into their hearts, apparently, because all of the members seem to be much more enthusiastic about the choir now than I remember them ever being. And this enthusiasm shows too when the choir ministers during the church services.

I think this might have something to do with the fact that soon after my appointment as leader, I delegated different responsibilities to various members, each of whom was assigned a set of tasks. Also, I have been careful to always encourage them in carrying out those tasks, praise them when they deserved it, seek their opinions, listen to their suggestions and defer to the judgement of the more experienced choristers when making decisions. Such that each of them feel as if they are actively participating in the decision making, and any previous resentment about my appointment as leader appears now to have dissipated.

It was my idea that rather than attending for choir practice on Saturdays and losing our Saturday evenings, we should instead meet for practice after service on Sunday, a time when I calculated that everyone would be in a good mood. This idea has turned out to be quite popular, hence the improvement in the quality of our performance. It is still my job to choose which song(s) the choir would sing at the Sunday service, teach the song to the choir if necessary, and direct the music. But I'm not complaining because I genuinely love doing this. For next Sunday I have picked this delectable song.

Zimbabwe, 30 years under Mugabe

On April 18th 1980, the Union Flag came down in Harare and the last Governor of Southern Rhodesia, Lord Soames, transfered executive power to the first Prime Minister of independent Zimbabwe. On the thirtieth anniversary of Zimbabwean "freedom", how is it working out?

This article is reproduced here with copyright permission from Independent News and Media Limited. You should read Mark Steyn's take on the Zimbabwe story too, which some think might be closer to the reality on the ground in Harare...

General Babangida must NOT become President of Nigeria

It is being reported that a spokesman for General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida has told the international media that General Babangida will run for president in the 2011 presidential poll after seeking the nomination of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP)

Personally, I cannot think of a more inappropriate candidate for the presidency of Nigeria. If the PDP candidate must be from northern Nigeria, there is a multitude of Nigerians from the north who are better qualified than General Babangida and whose reputations are not tarnished in the way that Babangida's is.

As my friend and fellow blogger Akin so aptly put it, "New Blood NOT Incredibly Bad Blood" is what Nigeria needs at this moment for the country's leadership. "General Babangida is incredibly bad blood" Akin states, and I am in complete agreement. It was under Babangida's tenure as president that corruption became endemic in Nigeria, the economy deteriorated and democracy was shoved aside. In fact, it was on the back of Babangida that the evil Abacha regime came to power.

Nigeria as a nation is already in a weakened state, due largely to the inept and incompetent leadership of recent years, a malaise that potentially will only be exacerbated by a Babangida presidency.

Given that sycophants abound in Nigeria, many of whom were enriched and thereby empowered by Babangida and his evil progeny Abacha, and who therefore are today in positions of power and influence, I am justified in my fear that the voices of millions of concerned Nigerians will be ignored; those who like me dread the return to power of the "Evil Genius", (a nickname Babangida gave himself). Shockingly, Babangida on his website even refers to himself as "Nigeria's Best President". May God help us...

You may want to read this interesting piece written by Sola Salako.

Support Amnesty's Malawi campaign

Fax and post letters to the Malawi government
Call for release of Steven Monjeza & Tiwonge Chimbalanga

London, UK - 11 March 2010

OutRage! is backing Amnesty International's appeal for letters of protest to the Malawian government over the arrest and trial of Steven Monjeza and Tiwonge Chimbalanga. They face up to 14 years jail on charges of homosexuality. The verdict in their trial is expected on Monday 22 March.

See this sample letter, and the postal address and fax number of the Malawian President and Attorney General.

Amnesty International has adopted the two men as Prisoners of Conscience and is campaigning for their release.

"OutRage! is supporting Amnesty's campaign. If enough people send letters of protest, it

might help secure an acquittal or a less harsh sentence. Even if Tiwonge and Steven are convicted, they could win a successful appeal and be freed eventually," said Peter Tatchell of OutRage!

"From their prison cells, both men have urged international pressure for their release. They need lots of support and solidarity in the run-up to the trial result. Please take time to support Amnesty's letter-writing campaign," he said.

Amnesty International UK Director, Kate Allen, added:

"Steven Monjeza and Tiwonge Chimbalanga have committed no criminal offence and we adopted them as prisoners of conscience after their arrest at the end of December. It is vital that as many people as possible join us in writing to the Malawi authorities calling on them to release the two men and for them to investigate their treatment in custody."

See this Amnesty International briefing on the case: Here